HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. · Motorcycles, Bicycles & Parts

HOG

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The short version

A profitable company with shrinking sales. Institutions are adding.

Going well

Profitable every year for 10 years
Brings in more cash than it spends
Buying back shares: share count down 19% in 3 years

Watch out for

Revenue down 13.8% from the year before

Money moves

Insiders sold $38K in the last 30 days, all through pre-planned sales
Institutions added 2.8% to their holdings in the quarter ending June 2026 (207 bought, 171 sold)
Held by Ray Dalio (Bridgewater)

Facts from SEC filings, not a recommendation.

What the price means

Price as of Oct 26

$28.84-0.3% that day

Company value: $3.0B; Share price times all shares
Price vs profit (P/E): 15.8x; You pay about $16 for each $1 of yearly profit
Price vs sales: 0.71x; Company value is 0.71 times a year of sales
Dividend yield: 2.5%; Yearly dividend as a share of today's price
Cash vs value: 63%; A big cushion: cash is a large part of what the company is worth
Debt vs value: 82%; Debt as a share of company value

From HOG's last IEX trade and its SEC filings (profits and sales over the last four quarters). A starting point for research, not a verdict.

The business over time

Last 12 quarters, from SEC filings

Sales, Jun '26

$1.2B-5.9% vs a year earlier

Sep '23Tap a barJun '26

Last 12 months: $4.2B, down 5.2% from the 12 months before. Over 5 years, sales grew about 2.0% a year.

What the price assumes

Your guesses, our math

Move the sliders to your own view of HOG. Starting points are the company's recent numbers.

Sales growth-5% a yearRecently: -5.2% a yearProfit margin5%Last 12 months: 4.8%P/E at the end16xToday: 15.8x. Many steady companies trade at 12x to 25xShare count change-5% a yearBelow zero means buybacks; above zero means new shares (dilution)

Sales in 5 years$3.3B

Profit in 5 years$164M

Price these guesses point to$32.59+13% vs $28.84 todayAbout +2.5% a year, before dividends

What today's price needs: with a 5% margin and a 16x P/E, sales could shrink about 7.3% a year for 5 years and still match today's price.

Simple math on your guesses, not a forecast or a price target. Real results depend on many things these sliders leave out.

Price

Price chart by TradingView.

Business quality

The checklist Warren Buffett-style investors use. Annual numbers for 2025.

3/6Mixed

MissReturn on equity 15%+Earns a lot on the money owners have in the business.10.7%
MissDebt under half of equityNot relying on borrowed money.0.79x equity
MissNet margin 10%+Keeps at least 10 cents of profit from each dollar of sales.7.6%
PassProfitable every yearSteady profits, not one good year.10 of 10 years
PassFree cash flow positiveBrings in more cash than it spends to run and grow.$415.2M
PassShare count not growingNot diluting owners. Falling means buybacks.-18.8% in 3 years

Revenue: $4.5B; -13.8% vs prior year
5-year growth: +2.0%/yr; revenue, per year
Total debt: $2.5B; 0.79x equity
Current ratio: 2.10x; short-term assets / bills due

From annual reports filed with the SEC. Not in this company's SEC data, so not scored: gross margin 40%+. A checklist is a starting point for research, not a verdict.