ASSURED GUARANTY LTD · Surety Insurance

AGO

Low riskNext report: Nov 5 (confirmed)

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The short version

A high-quality, profitable business with shrinking sales.

Going well

Profitable every year for 10 years
Sales up 27% last year
Brings in more cash than it spends

Watch out for

Sales down 31% in the latest quarter vs a year ago

Money moves

No insider buying or selling in the last 30 days
Institutions added 0.7% to their holdings in the quarter ending June 2026 (164 bought, 206 sold)
Held by Ray Dalio (Bridgewater)

Facts from SEC filings, not a recommendation.

What the price means

Price as of Oct 26

$70.13+1.1% that day

Company value: $3.1B; Share price times all shares
Price vs profit (P/E): 9.4x; You pay about $9 for each $1 of yearly profit
Price vs sales: 3.3x; Company value is 3.3 times a year of sales
Dividend yield: 1.9%; Yearly dividend as a share of today's price
Cash vs value: 11%; Cash as a share of company value
Debt vs value: 55%; Debt as a share of company value

From AGO's last IEX trade and its SEC filings (profits and sales over the last four quarters). A starting point for research, not a verdict.

The business over time

Last 12 quarters, from SEC filings

Sales, Jun '26

$195.0M-31% vs a year earlier

Sep '23Tap a barJun '26

Last 12 months: $940.0M, down 11% from the 12 months before. Over 5 years, sales shrank about 0.1% a year.

What the price assumes

Your guesses, our math

Move the sliders to your own view of AGO. Starting points are the company's recent numbers.

Sales growth-10% a yearRecently: -11% a yearProfit margin37%Last 12 months: 37.3%P/E at the end9xToday: 9.4x. Many steady companies trade at 12x to 25xShare count change-5% a yearBelow zero means buybacks; above zero means new shares (dilution)

Sales in 5 years$555M

Profit in 5 years$205M

Price these guesses point to$54.31-23% vs $70.13 todayAbout -5.0% a year, before dividends

What today's price needs: with a 37% margin and a 9x P/E, sales could shrink about 5.3% a year for 5 years and still match today's price.

Simple math on your guesses, not a forecast or a price target. Real results depend on many things these sliders leave out.

Price

Price chart by TradingView.

Business quality

The checklist Warren Buffett-style investors use. Annual numbers for 2025.

5/6Strong

MissReturn on equity 15%+Earns a lot on the money owners have in the business.9.0%
PassDebt under half of equityNot relying on borrowed money.0.30x equity
PassNet margin 10%+Keeps at least 10 cents of profit from each dollar of sales.45.3%
PassProfitable every yearSteady profits, not one good year.10 of 10 years
PassFree cash flow positiveBrings in more cash than it spends to run and grow.$259.0M
PassShare count not growingNot diluting owners. Falling means buybacks.-23.8% in 3 years

Revenue: $1.1B; +27.3% vs prior year
5-year growth: -0.1%/yr; revenue, per year
Total debt: $1.7B; 0.30x equity
Free cash flow: $259.0M; 23.3% of revenue

From annual reports filed with the SEC. Gross margin doesn't apply to banks and insurers, so it isn't scored. A checklist is a starting point for research, not a verdict.