AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC · Property and casualty insurance

AFG

Low riskNext report: Around Nov 4 (est.)

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The short version

A high-quality, profitable business with steady sales. Institutions are adding.

Going well

Pays a 4.8% dividend yield
Profitable every year for 10 years
Brings in more cash than it spends

Money moves

No insider buying or selling in the last 30 days
Institutions added 2.5% to their holdings in the quarter ending June 2026 (269 bought, 204 sold)
Held by Ray Dalio (Bridgewater)

Facts from SEC filings, not a recommendation.

What the price means

Price as of Oct 26

$150.63-0.0% that day

Company value: $12.5B; Share price times all shares
Price vs profit (P/E): 13.2x; You pay about $13 for each $1 of yearly profit
Price vs sales: 1.5x; Company value is 1.5 times a year of sales
Dividend yield: 4.8%; Yearly dividend as a share of today's price
Cash vs value: 12%; Cash as a share of company value
Debt vs value: 15%; Debt as a share of company value

From AFG's last IEX trade and its SEC filings (profits and sales over the last four quarters). A starting point for research, not a verdict.

The business over time

Last 12 quarters, from SEC filings

Sales, Jun '26

$2.0B+5.5% vs a year earlier

Sep '23Tap a barJun '26

Last 12 months: $8.3B, down 0.2% from the 12 months before. Over 5 years, sales grew about 7.2% a year.

What the price assumes

Your guesses, our math

Move the sliders to your own view of AFG. Starting points are the company's recent numbers.

Sales growth0% a yearRecently: -0.2% a yearProfit margin12%Last 12 months: 11.5%P/E at the end13xToday: 13.2x. Many steady companies trade at 12x to 25xShare count change-1% a yearBelow zero means buybacks; above zero means new shares (dilution)

Sales in 5 years$8.3B

Profit in 5 years$993M

Price these guesses point to$163.76+8.7% vs $150.63 todayAbout +1.7% a year, before dividends

What today's price needs: with a 12% margin and a 13x P/E, sales could shrink about 1.7% a year for 5 years and still match today's price.

Simple math on your guesses, not a forecast or a price target. Real results depend on many things these sliders leave out.

Price

Price chart by TradingView.

Business quality

The checklist Warren Buffett-style investors use. Annual numbers for 2025.

6/6Strong

PassReturn on equity 15%+Earns a lot on the money owners have in the business.18.1%
PassDebt under half of equityNot relying on borrowed money.0.38x equity
PassNet margin 10%+Keeps at least 10 cents of profit from each dollar of sales.10.3%
PassProfitable every yearSteady profits, not one good year.10 of 10 years
PassFree cash flow positiveBrings in more cash than it spends to run and grow.$1.5B
PassShare count not growingNot diluting owners. Falling means buybacks.-2.1% in 3 years

Revenue: $8.2B; -1.8% vs prior year
5-year growth: +7.2%/yr; revenue, per year
Total debt: $1.8B; 0.38x equity
Free cash flow: $1.5B; 18.8% of revenue

From annual reports filed with the SEC. Gross margin doesn't apply to banks and insurers, so it isn't scored. A checklist is a starting point for research, not a verdict.